Meloni's record tenure masks fragility as far-right rival rises on the right

Giorgia Meloni's hard-right government this week became the longest-lasting in Italy's postwar history, a milestone marked with a major celebration by her Brothers of Italy party in Bari, according to France 24 and Euronews reports. The prime minister has now served 1,413 days, surpassing the record previously held by Silvio Berlusconi, a feat that has drawn attention far beyond Italy as evidence that nationalist governance can endure within the European mainstream.

Yet the celebration unfolded against a backdrop of political strain. The Guardian reported on the rise of Roberto Vannacci, a former general whose Futuro Nazionale party has climbed rapidly in opinion polls, posing questions about whether Meloni will be forced to return to her hardline roots before the next general election, expected in 2027. Vannacci's appeal appears to draw voters from the same pool of nationalist sentiment that carried Meloni to power in 2022, creating a dilemma for a prime minister who has governed from the centre-right while managing a fragmented opposition.

Political analysts cited by France 24 argue that Meloni's longevity owes less to policy achievements than to her party's dominance within the governing coalition and a weak opposition that has failed to produce an alternative leader. Lorenzo Pregliasco, a polling analyst and adjunct professor at the University of Bologna, told France 24 that the opposition is fragmented, with no other possible leader than Meloni visible on the horizon.

The record, however, does not translate into electoral security. France 24's press review on Friday captured the split in European coverage: while right-leaning outlets celebrated the milestone, left-leaning commentators described Meloni's leadership as a fiasco, pointing to unresolved problems in the economy, migration and public services. The same report noted concern in Europe about a potentially chaotic winter, with the UN having issued warnings that could affect the continent broadly.

Nathalie Tocci, director of the Istituto Affari Internazionali in Rome, offered a formula for Meloni's success that combined political tactics and fortune: roughly half savvy positioning and half extraordinarily good luck, she told France 24. That assessment aligns with the view that Meloni has benefited from external circumstances, including a relatively stable European security environment following the early phase of the Ukraine war and a fragmented domestic opposition unable to capitalise on government vulnerabilities.

The emergence of Vannacci complicates that picture. The Guardian's reporting suggests that Futuro Nazionale's rise could push Meloni to adopt more radical positions on immigration and European integration to fend off the challenge from her right flank, a move that would test her carefully cultivated relationships in Brussels and NATO. Analysts note that her government's durability has allowed her to accumulate diplomatic capital, but that such capital is spent quickly when domestic politics force a shift toward harder rhetoric.

For now, Meloni's coalition appears intact, and her party's dominance within it remains the structural basis of her longevity, as Dr. Giulia Sandri of the Free University of Brussels observed in a France 24 interview. Whether that structure survives the pressure of a rising rival on the right, and an election that must be called within roughly two years, is the central question of Italian politics as the world's press reads it.