After a Record-Hot Summer, the Alps Weigh an Uncertain Winter

Italy is being told to expect an autumn and winter of above-average temperatures, with extreme weather still a live risk, according to The Local Italy, which reported on Tuesday that a strong El Niño is shaping the seasonal outlook. The same item notes that the country has just come through a record-hot summer. For a valley whose economy is built on snow, the forecast is not an abstraction but a budget line.

The Local Italy's report does not claim to know what will fall on the Alps, and neither should anyone else at this range. Seasonal forecasting is strongest on temperature and weakest on precipitation, which is precisely the variable that decides whether the region's ski lifts turn or sit idle. A warm winter can still deliver snow; a warm winter can also deliver rain to 2,000 metres, and the difference is measured in overnight freezing levels rather than in monthly averages.